CORDIS Project
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This project develops a new probabilistic methodology to forecast climate surprises, focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. It aims to create a fast Earth System Model that accurately simulates these elements over long timescales, enhancing our understand…
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS, respectively) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are prominent examples of tipping elements in the Earth system that have the potential to respond nonlinearly to small changes in forcing.
Tipping elements can thus give rise to climate surprises, i.e., low-probability, high-impact events that may be triggered earlier than expected.
Simulating such climate surprises and their impacts, on the relevant multi-centennial tim…
ALFRED-WEGENER-INSTITUT HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR POLAR- UND MEERESFORSCHUNG
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